Proceed With Caution — But Don’t Look Away.
Pavel Dorofeyev is a Ranger. Seven years, $77 million, $11 million per season — the second-highest paid player on the roster behind Igor Shesterkin. The trade was announced from the podium at the NHL Draft in Buffalo, and the Rangers faithful exhaled for the first time since Artemi Panarin was shipped to the LA Kings at the trade deadline. New York finally has its scorer.
But fantasy managers should pump the brakes before making him a top-ten pick. Here is why — and why the ceiling is still very real.
The caution flag is legitimate. In Las Vegas, Dorofeyev was surrounded by elite talent. He played alongside Jack Eichel — one of the best playmakers in the world — and benefited from a Golden Knights supporting cast that consistently put him in the right positions at the right times. He ranked in the 97th percentile among forwards in offensive zone time percentage and in the 96th percentile in offensive zone start percentage — meaning Vegas’s coaching staff put him in the most favorable situations the game can offer. The 37 goals and 64 points he produced were real. The conditions that produced them were optimal in a way that New York simply cannot replicate.
The Rangers finished 23rd in the NHL in goals per game last season at 2.87 — and that was with Panarin for more than half the year. This is a thin roster. Mika Zibanejad remains a legitimate first-line centre, and he gives Dorofeyev a quality distributor — Zibanejad ranked among the NHL leaders in power-play goals with 16 and power-play points with 35 this season, which is an encouraging sign for Dorofeyev’s power play production. But the depth behind them is a genuine concern, and Dorofeyev is going to face harder matchups and harder minutes than he ever saw in Vegas.
Now for the upside — and it is significant. The ice time projection is where this gets compelling. Averaging approximately 17 minutes per game in Vegas, Dorofeyev was one dangerous piece among many. In New York, he is the piece. A jump to 20-plus minutes per game is not a projection — it is a necessity. More ice time means more shots, more power play exposure, and more opportunity in all key situations. Over the past two seasons combined, Dorofeyev is tied for first ( with jake DeBrusk – crazy, i know ) in the entire NHL in power-play goals with 33 ( ahead of Leon Draisaitl – 32, Kirill Kaprizov – 32, Jake Guentzel – 30. He now arrives on a Rangers team that ran the fifth-best power play in the league last season. That combination is genuinely dangerous.
The underlying numbers back his goal-scoring ability completely. He ranked in the 93rd percentile in high-danger shots on goal, the 95th percentile in hard shot attempts, and the 90th percentile in high-danger goals — these are not system numbers. These are shooter numbers. He generates elite-level shot quality regardless of who is around him.
The realistic fantasy projection sits between 70 and 80 points — a modest step forward from his Vegas production driven entirely by increased ice time and usage. That projection holds if Zibanejad stays healthy and the Rangers add complementary pieces around him. If the supporting cast disappoints, the assist totals could crater even as the goals remain steady.
Draft him with eyes open. The talent is elite. The situation is not. That gap is exactly where fantasy managers make their money.
– The Add List +
Trade details and statistics sourced from NHL.com, ESPN, and the Las Vegas Review-Journal, June 2026.