Elite Production, Uncertain Future : Draft Him Anyway.
Let us get the elephant in the room out of the way first, because it is going to dominate the Jason Robertson conversation from now until the trade deadline.
Robertson signed a one-year, $12 million contract with Dallas in July. One year. In a summer where Macklin Celebrini signed for $18.8 million annually and Leo Carlsson matched that figure, a one-year deal at $12 million for one of the most consistent 80-plus point wingers in the NHL is not a long-term commitment. It is a placeholder. It is a player and a team that could not agree on what the next chapter looks like, kicking the decision down the road by exactly one season.
What that means practically is this: Dallas will almost certainly explore trading Robertson at some point before the deadline. He will command north of $15 or $16 million on the open market when he hits unrestricted free agency next summer, and the Stars, a franchise that already has Wyatt Johnston locked up long-term, may not be in a position to absorb that number while remaining competitive. The return for a 28-year-old winger of his calibre at the deadline would be significant. The move, if it happens, could dramatically alter his fantasy value depending on the destination.
Now for everything else — and everything else is outstanding.
Robertson has played all 82 games in each of the last four seasons. In a league where injuries derail elite wingers with frustrating regularity, Robertson has been as durable as any forward in the game. He has never missed a game in 4 seasons. Not one. He has also posted 80-plus points in each of those four seasons, peaking at 109 points in 2022-23, the season that announced him to the broader hockey world as a genuine superstar, and producing 96 points last season including 45 goals and 51 assists to lead the entire Dallas Stars roster in scoring. He is the best player on a team that also features Wyatt Johnston and Mikko Rantanen.
The offensive environment around him in 2026-27 remains among the best in the Western Conference. Wyatt Johnston is coming off an 86-point season and trending toward his first 90-plus point campaign. Rantanen is a proven 90-point producer. The Dallas power play finished in the top eight in the league last season. Robertson is the primary beneficiary of all of it, a pure scorer with elite shot quality who does not need ideal circumstances to produce but absolutely thrives when they are present.
A projection of 100 points in 84 games is entirely grounded in what his career has shown. His worst season over the past four years was 80 points…and he did it twice. His best was 109. The expected outcome of 100 points sits comfortably in the middle of that range and accounts for the possibility that the trade deadline brings a disruptive change of scenery.
The trade risk is the one variable that keeps the Fantasy Risk Rating from being as low as it could be. A move to a contender mid-season could mean more linemate quality and more opportunity…if that’s even possible. A move to a rebuilding team could mean the opposite. The destination matters enormously, and nobody knows where he lands yet.
Draft him with confidence. Manage him actively around the deadline. Elite production is elite production, and Robertson has been delivering it without interruption for four straight years.
Projection Tier: 100+ Points
Expected Range: 100 Points
Floor: 90 Points
Ceiling: 109 Points
Fantasy Risk Rating: Low
Opportunity: 5/5
Trend: Stable
Statistics and contract details sourced from NHL.com, PuckPedia, The Hockey News, and Spotrac, July 2026.
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